The 2021 Oscars are fast approaching, and the annual celebration of all things movies is set to take place on April 25. The 93rd Academy Awards ceremony is happening later than normal due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has caused plenty of disruption to film release date schedules over the past year. Despite this knock-on effect, there are still plenty of contenders for the Oscars’ top prizes. Who, then, is likely to win in 2021?
We’ve compiled a list of movies that we expect to receive nominations, and made our predictions on who might be successful on the night. These projections are based on other award nomination lists (the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards) and those movies that have generated the most pre-Oscars hype.
As the Oscars 2021 nominations reveal date of March 15 approaches, here is our selection of potential nominees and winners, as well as who we'd like to actually take home the prizes.
We will update this as we learn more about how awards season is panning out.
When is the 2021 Oscar ceremony taking place?
The 93rd Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, April 25 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Picture
- Nomadland
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- One Night in Miami
- Promising Young Woman
- Minari
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Mank
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- The Father
With theaters closed worldwide, it’s unsurprising to see so many streaming service movies make the cut. Netflix leads the way with four nominations, but that doesn’t mean we should expect a landslide for the streamer. Nomadland (which is now streaming on Hulu in the US) and Minari are huge contenders for the Best Picture gong, so don’t assume that the streaming giant has this in the bag.
Who do we think will win? We’ve plumped for Nomadland. It’s generated the biggest pre-Oscars buzz and, as long as it comes out on top at other award ceremonies, it’s hard to see another winner.
Who do we want to win? A victory for Minari would be great, instead of the film being kept to the foreign language category like it was at the Golden Globes, despite being an American-made movie.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Director
- Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
- Regina King (One Night in Miami)
- Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
- Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
- David Fincher (Mank)
After the controversy surrounding last year’s male-dominated list, the 2021 Oscars director’s category is much more diverse. Three nominees are female, and it's a hard category to call. Chloé Zhao, Regina King, and Emerald Fennell all made worthy movies, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see one of the trio secure this gong.
Who do we think will win? We’re hard pushed to choose between these, but Chloé Zhao should edge it.
Who do we want to win? Again, it’s a tough choice, but seeing Chloé Zhao win it would prove that you don’t need 20 films under your belt to be nominated for big movie awards.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Actor
- Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
- Steven Yeun (Minari)
- Gary Oldman (Mank)
- Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
- Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
We're expecting another diverse list. Boseman’s posthumous nomination is deserved for his heart wrenching turn as Levee Green in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but Ahmed’s scintillating performance as a drummer who loses his hearing and Yeun’s acclaimed intimate-yet-powerful showing will run Boseman close.
Who do we think will win? Chadwick Boseman. As electric as the other four nominees are in their respective movies, the late actor seems like a shoo-in for this award.
Who do we want to win? Steven Yeun has come a long way from his Walking Dead days and has picked some excellent roles over the past few years, so it would be wonderful to see him take the gong home if Boseman is overlooked. It would also be great to see Da 5 Bloods' Delroy Lindo at least get a nomination in this category – though the Golden Globes snub didn't fill us with hope on that front.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Actress
- Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
- Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
- Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
- Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
- Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)
With so many stellar female performances this year, it’s been difficult to whittle this list down. Viola Davis’ commanding portrayal as Ma Rainey was a joy to behold, while Vanessa Kirby’s committed performance to a tough role in Netflix's Pieces of a Woman should make her a strong contender. Lest we forget the impervious Frances McDormand too, who is the likely frontrunner for this award.
Who do we think will win? We think it'll be Frances McDormand. She’s odds-on to triumph at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, so expect her to win here too.
Who do we want to win? A victory for Vanessa Kirby would be surprising yet deserved, particularly as this is her first Academy Award nomination.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Supporting Actor
- David Strathairn (Nomadland)
- Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
- Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
- Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
- Jared Leto (The Little Things)
The Supporting Actor and Actress roles have become as hotly contested as their more illustrious counterparts, and this year’s selections are proof of that. Any of the above could play the lead role in a movie, and it’ll be interesting to see if youth or experience wins out on the night. Jared Leto seems like a weird pick for this category, but he's got the nod at both the SAG Awards and Golden Globes for the otherwise poorly-reviewed The Little Things – so we can't count him out from this category.
Who do we think will win? We think it'll be Daniel Kaluuya. Judas and the Black Messiah has generated plenty of buzz in 2021, and Kaluuya’s standout performance should see him through.
Who do we want to win? Sacha Baron Cohen. He’s famous for his comedy characters, but Cohen’s portrayal of Abbie Hoffman showed that dramatic roles aren’t out of his reach.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Supporting Actress
- Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
- Olivia Colman (The Father)
- Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
- Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
- Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Two of the five Supporting Actress nominees already have Oscar wins under their belt, but don’t assume that Olivia Colman or Jodie Foster will add to their collection here. The duo are run close by some excellent performances from their peers, so it’ll be intriguing to see if experience or youth - like the Supporting Actor category - will seize the day.
Who do we think will win? Olivia Colman. The Broadchurch and The Favourite star is a darling on the awards circuit, so we wouldn't be surprised to see Colman secure her second Academy award.
Who do we want to win? Helena Zengel. The 12-year-old already has four award wins under her belt for her performance in German drama flick System Crasher, but an Oscar win this early in her career would surely confirm her child prodigy status.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Original Screenplay
- Minari
- Promising Young Woman
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Mank
- Judas and the Black Messiah
Ordinarily, this category would be the best bet for movies that miss out on the Oscars’ other big prizes. This year, though, there’s one film that appeals to the Hollywood awards circuit, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see it come out on top as a result.
Who do we think will win? Mank. Everything about David Fincher’s biographical drama screams ‘Oscar winner’, so we suspect it will give Fincher his first Academy Award after five previous attempts.
Who do we want to win? In a male dominated category, seeing Emerald Fennell scoop the award for Promising Young Woman would be a more interesting choice – that or Minari, anyway.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Adapted Screenplay
- Nomadland
- One Night in Miami
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- The Father
- News of the World
Like last year, Netflix leads the way with two nominations. Despite Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and News of the World being great films, though, the other three candidates are just as worthy of securing the gong, so don’t count them out.
Who do we think will win? Nomadland. We expect Chloe Zhao’s movie to earn its fair share of awards at this year’s ceremony, and best Adapted Screenplay will be one of those triumphs.
Who do we want to win? One Night in Miami. 2020 was a breakout year for screenwriter Kemp Powers, and it would be fitting to see him land this award for his original stage play and this movie adaptation.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Animated Feature
- Soul
- Onward
- Over the Moon
- Wolfwalkers
- The Croods: A New Age
It’s hard to look at this category and expect anything other than a Disney win. Soul and (to a lesser extent) Onward continue to deliver on the quality we’ve come to expect from Pixar and, as wonderful as the other candidates are, it’s a straight shoot between Pixar’s two entries in our view.
Who do we think will win? Soul. Pixar’s interpretation of the afterlife, and the progress it has made on human characters in recent times, should see it pip Onward to the title.
Who do we want to win? Wolfwalkers. A win for Cartoon Saloon’s fantasy adventure flick would prove that 2D animation still has a place at the top table.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best Score
- Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Soul)
- James Newton Howard (News of the World)
- Alexandre Desplat (The Midnight Sky)
- Terence Blanchard (Da 5 Bloods)
- Ludwig Goransson (Tenet)
This is a tough one to call. Tenet is the sole nominee that launched in theaters and, as such, was the only movie that could take full advantage of cinematic surround sound systems. There is more to movie scores than simply sounding bombastic, however, so Tenet isn’t odds-on to win, despite that score being the best thing about the film.
Who do we think will win? It’s been over a decade since they last won an Oscar, and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross could secure their second Academy award for their work on Soul.
Who do we want to win? Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. The pair’s new-age composition for Soul’s metaphysical realm, coupled with their jazz collaborations with Jon Batiste, is our pick.
Oscar predictions 2021: Best International Feature Film
- Another Round
- La Llorona
- Two of Us
- Minari
- Collective
This category is often the toughest one to call. 15 foreign language films have made the 2021 Oscars shortlist, and whittling that number down to five is usually made on which flicks have been talked about in Hollywood circles. Minari is almost certain to lead the way, but the others will push it hard.
Who do we think will win? Minari. The coverage that Isaac Lee Chung’s semi-biographical flick has received should make it a shoo-in to win.
Who do we want to win? Filippo Meneghetti’s feature directorial debut Two of Us would be a turn up for the books, but one we’d like to see happen.
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